US growth remains resilient despite successive shocks. According to our forecasts, it is expected to reach 2.2% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. Its main driver is still investment in artificial intelligence (AI), which has remained entirely unaffected by the energy crisis. The labour market has seen a marked improvement in job creation and a fall in the unemployment rate. Core inflation remains stubbornly high and above the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s target. Against this backdrop, the Fed has begun a hiking cycle in September, which, according to our scenario, would bring the Fed Funds target to 4.50% (upper limit) by Q1 2027. At the same time, long-term rates are under upward pressure.
